The Economic Impact Of The One-Child Policy
The One-Child Policy helped China to raise its economic growing in the past decennaries. China was able to command the rate of the population growing lower than the rate of the GDP growing, and therefore the GDP per capita additions dramatically in the past decennaries. In arrested development theoretical account 1, over 53 % of the economic growing can be explained by the policy ; in arrested development theoretical account 2, over 74 % of the economic growing can be explained by the policy. Hence this paper has shown the alteration in the economic growing of China could be explained by the effects of the One-Child Policy. Although the rough birth rate is non shown to hold long term or short term consequence on the GDP per capita, the gross fixed capital formation has a important positive impact on the GDP per capita. The gross fixed capital formation could non hold increased that much without the presence of the One-Child Policy. While the population growing decreases, more resources are used to better the life criterion.
The long term consequence of the One-Child policy was besides considered in the research. The consequences obtained in arrested development theoretical account 2 have indicated the alumnus economic growing in China can be good explained by the consequence of the One-Child Policy.
The coefficients of the rough birth rate were negative in both arrested development theoretical accounts ; it suggested that portion of the Malthusian theory and the neo-Malthusian theory were support. The chief unfavorable judgment of the theories was the theories did non account the progress in the engineering, and thereby the nutrient supply has increased faster than arithmetic advancement. The scientific discipline and engineering in China has evolved enormously in the past 30 old ages since the One-Child Policy has implemented. Therefore, the Malthusian theory and the neo-Malthusian may non be applicable in the modern universe today. This position has been support in the work of Galor and Weil ( 1999, pp.150-154 ) . Furthermore, portion of the Revisionism theory was supported. The theory suggested that the population growing does non impede the population growing in heavy country and China is a dumbly populated state.
In arrested development theoretical account 2, lagged rough birth rate was used. Since the population will come in the work force at the elderly of 16, the rough birth rate was tested for the impact on the GDP per capita. The variable was found undistinguished to explicate the alterations in the GDP per capita. The consequences suggested that China was non confronting the decreasing return of labor.
Since the rough birth rate is non correlated with the growing of GDP per capita, there is no population theory which is wholly supported in the analysis of China. Although China was non confronting a Malthusian moral force of overpopulation and decreasing return of labor kineticss, it is indispensable for the execution of the One-Child Policy. If the population was non controlled and continued to increase, China would shortly hold to confront the jobs associated with overpopulation and decreasing return to labor.
In decision, the determination of the execution of the One-Child Policy in 1979 was supported in this research. Although the One-Child Policy has shown to hold benefitted the economic growing of China in the short term and 16 old ages long term, it may hold an inauspicious consequence in the really long term. The “ one kid ” now has to back up his/her two parents and four grandparents. Therefore, the execution of the One-Child Policy was supported in 1979 but the determination of the continuance of the One-Child Policy is to be remained unsure.
6.2 Restrictions of the Study
The consequences obtained in the research merely give a suggestion of the execution of the One-Child Policy. There are certain restrictions in the research. A figure of measurement issues need to be addressed are stated below.
As a placeholder of the instruction degree, it is better to utilize the mean figure of schooling as it gives a clearer image of the instruction degree of the population. Unfortunately, the National Bureau of Statistics of China has non recorded this variable for the period, 1979 – 2007.
As a placeholder of the populating criterion, it is better to utilize the gross fixed capital formation per capita as it accounts the fact that the populating standard additions faster than the population growing. Unfortunately, the size labour force was besides non recorded. ( Gross fixed capital formation per capita = Gross fixed capital formation/ Workforce )
There are several losing figures in the information. The missing figures normally occur in 1980 to 1985. Although insertion has used to cipher the losing informations in between, the deficiency of informations may take to inaccuracies in the consequences.
There may be inaccuracies in the figures of the rough birth rate. Many illegal birth of babe misss occurred due to the traditional boy penchant in China. The existent petroleum birth rate should be higher as the illegal births were non recorded.
The deficiency of the sample sizes may besides take to inaccuracies in the consequences which determine the long term consequence of the One-Child Policy. There are merely 13 observations after the accommodations, which may take to no important variable being detected even if there is a one nowadays. Furthermore, merely the labor market was accounted to find the long term consequence of the One-Child Policy in this survey. The “ 4-2-1 ” job can non accounted in the survey, as the policy has merely implemented for 31 old ages and it is non long plenty for the analysis of this consequence.
Although the execution of the One-Child Policy was by and large supported in the consequences, it may non be supported in different countries of China. The mean rough birth rate was used in the research, and therefore the determination of the One-Child Policy may non be supported in single metropoliss. E.g. Urban countries
The official Numberss from the National Bureau of Statistics of China may hold exaggerated the growing of GDP [ The Economist: China ‘s blue statistics ( Anon. , 2009 ) ] , which will take to the overestimate of the consequence of the One-Child Policy.
6.3 Potential Areas of Study
The research provides general survey on the execution of the One Child Policy in China. It can be farther studied to accomplish a deeper degree of apprehension of the policy. As mentioned in the old subdivision, the analysis of the execution of the One-Child Policy may differ from metropoliss. The figure of births has been mostly reduced, and the population started to age. Urban countries may hold started to confront the deficit of labor and jobs related to demographic aging. This suggestion has been supported as the citizens in Shanghai were encouraged to hold two kids per household since 2009 ( Xie Linli, 2009 ) . Furthermore, the action taken in Shanghai has supported my decision in the research which China was non confronting the decreasing return of labor. The relationship between the GDP per capita and the rough birth rate in different metropoliss can be revised by metropoliss. The population theories will perchance be supported by the analyses in different metropoliss. Same methods and trials can be used and the informations required can besides be found in the official web site of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Since the One-Child Policy was criticised to hold violated the human rights, the consequences obtained from this farther research will help the discovery suggestions to other household planning in China. If the rough birth rate was found positively correlated with the economic growing in different metropoliss, some policy suggestions can be made. For illustration, more births can be allowed or merely the spacing between births is controlled. Change of the policy will perchance convey advantages to China. The unfavorable judgment of the household planning may cut down ; the figure of female infanticides may besides be reduced, and may take to the farther addition in the economic growing in China.
The One-Child Policy has ever been a beginning of contention since its executing ; there are many more possible perusal countries. In the analysis chapter, the growing in the figure of third registration in China was found undistinguished to explicate the economic growing. Another independent variable such as the per centum of people that have finished secondary schools can be used as a placeholder of the instruction degree. More research can be done on the relationships between the One-Child Policy, instruction and rough birth rate. The relationship between the variables can besides be found utilizing the clip series OLS arrested development. Although the instruction degree of the people was increased by the One-Child Policy, there are other factors that affect the instruction degree. As the instruction degree of the people increased, the desire of bettering the qualities of life may increase and the desire holding kids may diminish. As a consequence, the rough birth rate may non merely be affected by the One-Child Policy, but besides the increased degree of instruction. The consequences obtained can assist to detect if the consequence of the One-Child Policy was overestimated in the present survey, and at the same clip aid to derive a better apprehension of the economic growing in China.
Further survey could include analyzing the sex ratios in China. It has ever been an active debating subject. The One-Child Policy has affected to the sex ratio due to the traditional boy penchant in China. The sex selective abortion has led to the extra births of males and the imbalance sex ratio in China. A research has been done on the imbalanced sex ratios, and the research worker, Hesketh states that, “ males under the age of 20 exceeded females by more than 32 million in China, and more than 1.1 million extra births of male childs occurred. ” Since there are 32 million more males than females, some of the work forces will be unable to acquire married and have a household. Fewer births will be occurred as there are less married twosomes, and hence the imbalanced sex ratios may besides diminish the rough birth rate of the population. Furthermore, the kids may hold to take care even more aged instead than merely their ain 2 parents and 4 parents, but their relations every bit good. The GDP per capita may be negatively affected by the sex ratios. Same as the suggested research in the old paragraph, the consequences obtained can assist to detect if the consequence of the One-Child Policy was overestimated in the present survey.
The last suggestion of the potencies country of survey is based on the yesteryear of the One-Child Policy effects on the economic growing, and to gauge the future consequence on the economic system. The alterations in the variables which are affected by the One-Child Policy can be predicted. The least squares arrested development can be used to gauge the lines of best tantrum. Based on the predicted alterations of the variables, the growing of GDP in the hereafter can so be estimated. Further analysis on the execution of the One-Child Policy can be done along with the consequences obtained.
The People ‘s Republic of China seems to hold faith in the influences on the One-Child Policy. As to how deep the influence of the One-Child Policy, merely clip can state.